Exchange rates forecasting for Project Control (ARIMA)

Exchange rates forecasting for Project Control
Econometric forecasting and analysis for the GBP


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Exchange rates forecasting for Project Control (ARIMA)
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Word count 1000-1100 incl. SPSS graphs



1) Introduction


Meaning of exchange rates, impacts on economy, past fluctuations in GBP , black swan events, currency crisis GBP early 90s/ 2000s and Brexit, USD as world reserve currency,

Illustrate why forecasting currencies, currency risks assessment for project management is important

identify what the data (ARIMA) is aiming to illustrate


2) Methodology

Overview/explaining ARIMA and why better suited than other techniques for time series analysis


3) Forecasting GBP/EUR, GBP/USD exchange rates with ARIMA (SPSS)

(Timescale 2005-2020)

a) this section needs to provide an illustration of the data (graph)

b) [as text ] for the adequacy of the performance metrics, evaluate ARIMA model performance via MAE, MAPE and RMSE

c) [as text] analyse/interpret actual vs forecast and implications for currency hedging in a project management environment (also currency risk assessment)


Not just provide a graph or datasets but analyse/ explain!


4) Conclusion

Predict future trends for 2021 & 2022 and disclose limitations, possible impacting factors.
(TEXT not just a graph or a reference)

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